I've lost count of how many forum posts quote a game's return figure as if it were a forecast for the night. It isn't. The number is real and useful, but only when you understand what sort of number it is. The explanation holds for games on Reefspins and for pokies everywhere. Adults only.
Where the figure comes from
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Return to player, or RTP, is the percentage of all money staked that a game pays back over a very large number of spins. If the figure is 96 percent, the design aim is A$96 returned for every A$100 wagered across the long run. The other A$4 is the house edge. Independent test labs typically check these calculations for licensed games.
The catch in "very large"
Very large means millions of spins, spread across thousands of players. One person's evening is a tiny slice. Suppose you stake A$200 over an evening. The average expectation is A$192 back, yet real results scatter widely. One player might finish on A$40, another on A$420, and both have played the same game honestly.
A simple way to feel this is to roll a die sixty times and count the sixes. You'd expect ten, and you might get five or fifteen. The long-run share of sixes is still one in six.
What the number can't tell you
- how often the game pays anything - whether the next spin is more or less likely to win - how large the top prize is - how a bonus round behaves on a given day
Two pokies with an identical RTP can feel miles apart. One might pay small amounts constantly, the other might stay silent for ages and then pay big.
Using it sensibly
Look at it as a comparison tool. Between two similar games, the higher figure is slightly kinder to a budget over a long time. But it's a small difference, and it doesn't rescue a bad night.
Some providers publish more than one RTP setting for the same title, so check the information screen of the version you're actually playing rather than trusting a review that's months old.
Treat the game as entertainment with a price, set a firm limit, and take regular breaks. Free, confidential help is available across Australia through Gambling Help Online if play starts to cause worry.